This topic is going to be around for a long time. Here's a somewhat different perspective on the vaccination thread.
1. When the virus first surfaced, no one had immunity. The virus spread rapidly, and felled many of the most vulnerable.
2. Prior to the vaccine, the virus continued to spread contained only by social distancing, masks, handwashing and so on. As those preventive measures were relaxed, the virus spread faster. We learned how many would get sick in the July-August "second wave".
3. By the time the third wave started, a couple of things happened. Vaccine started to make its way into use, and there was focus on those vulnerable patients remaining alive. Moreover the number of people mildly infected or asymptomatically infected had grown to the point that the virus started having trouble finding a non-immune host. Put differently, the effective R number started dropping towards 1.
What we're seeing in the hospital and in the intensive care units are the "unlucky unvaccinated". These are individuals who, as a matter of random chance, missed getting infected in the first year or so of the pandemic. This is not unlike the situation with any other respiratory virus--in any given year, some people simply escape infection rather than having low-grade or asymptomatic infection--and then get infected on the next round. Unfortunately, some of these people will have especially horrific infections. See, for example, https://www.webmd.com/vaccines/covid-19-vaccine/news/20210618/man-refusing-covid-vaccine-later-needs-lung-transplant
It's not just SARS-CoV-2, the cause of COVID. As social distancing has relaxed, we are seeing a off-seasonal spike in other respiratory infections. See https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20210614/with-covid-easing-germs-are-on-the-hunt-for-us
The uptake of vaccine among practicing physicians speaks to the their level of concern. 96% is "nearly all". Some nurses have declined. From personal knowledge, those who work in the front lines are far more accepting than those who do not have direct daily patient contact. That's our general sense, and emphatically not based on systematic collection of data.
The bottom line is that a substantial number of people --at least in the USA--are going to continue to decline the vaccine. Most will be lucky. Some will be unlucky and end up in the hospital, in the ICU and so on. As the Delta variant becomes prominent in the USA, we think there may be an uptick in those serious cases as the variant is at least a bit more transmissible (that is why it is becoming the dominant strain) and likely causes slightly more severe illness. The current vaccines are at least partially protective, and for COVID partial protection means not ending up in the hospital, in the ICU, on life support.
The next uptick could be as early as the fall season. Cooler weather favor respiratory illness, and we will likely see an uptick in transmission as kids return to face-to-face classes. Kids typically (but not always!) have milder infections. Kids also will have difficulty maintaining distancing. Unless they are vaccinated, transmission will be probable. And then we will get into the wintertime "influenza like illnesses".
It's going to be an interesting 12 months ahead. Our perspective is that the vaccines are the best countermeasures that we have, and we will continue to roll up our sleeves as the seasonal influenza vaccine is rolled out, the COVID booster is rolled out, etc. We understand the concerns, and nothing is risk free. But we also have looked at the numbers, and the numbers tell us that we are at far less risk from a serious reaction to any of the vaccines than we are from the viruses themselves.
We are headed to a gathering of LS people in about 5 weeks. We expect all will be vaccinated.